As the international system fragments and the pressure to align with one of two rival poles intensifies, a striking number of states are refusing the choice. Middle powers, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and others, are pursuing strategies of hedging and diversification, cultivating ties across competing camps to preserve their room for maneuver and extract advantage from the rivalry itself. India buys Russian oil and weapons while deepening security cooperation with the United States and its Indo-Pacific partners; Gulf states host American bases while courting Chinese investment and mediating with Iran; Turkey, a NATO member, bargains hard with both Moscow and the West. This is not the passive non-alignment of the Cold War but an active, transactional autonomy, in which states leverage their pivotal positions, resources, and markets to raise their price and multiply their options. The proliferation of "minilateral" arrangements, flexible, issue-specific coalitions outside the large formal institutions, provides the vehicles for this diplomacy, letting states assemble partnerships à la carte rather than committing to blocs. The phenomenon reflects a genuine redistribution of agency, as the diffusion of economic and military capability gives second-tier powers leverage the old bipolar and unipolar orders denied them. The analytical questions are consequential: whether hedging is a stable equilibrium or a posture that collapses under acute crisis when neutrality becomes untenable, what determines a middle power's success in converting its position into durable influence, whether the aggregate effect of many states hedging stabilizes the system by resisting bloc formation or destabilizes it by eroding predictability, and whether strategic autonomy is a coherent grand strategy or an opportunistic improvisation that great-power confrontation could eventually foreclose.
Middle Powers and Strategic Autonomy in a Fragmenting Global Order
Type
Open Panel
Language
English
Chair
Co-chair
Discussants
Description
Track
Onsite Presentation Language
Same as proposal language
Panel ID
PL-4146






